Indy
TY 4 Stroke God
looks good fo the up
The National Weather Service said Thursday that in many parts of the country the weather will be similar to last winter.
"Citizens should prepare for the full range of winter weather," said Scott Gudes, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"We don't expect a repeat of the record-breaking cold temperatures of November-December of last year, but this winter should be cooler than the warm winters of the late 1990s," Gudes said.
This winter, better technologies will help National Weather Service forecasters pinpoint extreme weather, said National Weather Service director Jack Kelly.
He said the nation is likely to experience large temperature and precipitation swings during the winter.
Among the reasons for the expected variability, forecasters said, is the absence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena. El Nino and La Nina involve either unusual warming or cooling of the water of the central Pacific Ocean. When they occur, it has a strong effect on climate in the United States and elsewhere. With neither of those acting strongly, winter weather becomes more variable.
In addition, the Arctic Oscillation is expected to influence the number of cold-air spurts in the South and Nor'easters on the East Coast.
The Arctic Oscillation varies during the season, affecting the circulation of air.
When it is in a positive phase, the mid-latitude jet stream shifts to the north and there is an increase in the number of warm days over much of the contiguous United States. In the negative phase, the high-latitude air flow is blocked near Greenland, resulting in an increase in the extreme cold days, especially from the Great Plains to the Southeast.
The regional outlook for this winter includes:
Northeast: Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected. Snowfall for the entire region will depend on the fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation.
Mid-Atlantic States: Equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal temperatures and rain or snow. Storm tracks could bring more snow than the winters of the late 1990s, but this largely depends on the Arctic Oscillation.
Southeast: Should be drier than normal. Temperatures have an equal chance of averaging above normal, normal or below normal.
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes: Temperatures should be lower than normal, with more subzero days than in recent winters. There are equal chances for cumulative precipitation to be above normal, normal or below normal.
Northern Great Plains and Rockies: Below-normal temperatures with more subzero days than experienced on average during the winters of the late 1990s.
Southern Plains: Wet and mild weather is more likely than in recent winters.
Central Rockies: Expect equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal precipitation and temperatures.
Northwest: Equal chances for above normal, normal or below-normal rain and snow. Heavy coastal rains are more likely compared to the previous three winters. A repeat of the near-record dryness seen last winter is unlikely.
Southwest: Warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the region, except western California, and equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal precipitation.
Southwestern Alaska: Expect a wet winter.
Hawaii and the rest of Alaska: Expect equal chance of above normal, normal or below normal temperatures and precipitation.
Copyright 2001 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Copyright © 2004
The National Weather Service said Thursday that in many parts of the country the weather will be similar to last winter.
"Citizens should prepare for the full range of winter weather," said Scott Gudes, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"We don't expect a repeat of the record-breaking cold temperatures of November-December of last year, but this winter should be cooler than the warm winters of the late 1990s," Gudes said.
This winter, better technologies will help National Weather Service forecasters pinpoint extreme weather, said National Weather Service director Jack Kelly.
He said the nation is likely to experience large temperature and precipitation swings during the winter.
Among the reasons for the expected variability, forecasters said, is the absence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena. El Nino and La Nina involve either unusual warming or cooling of the water of the central Pacific Ocean. When they occur, it has a strong effect on climate in the United States and elsewhere. With neither of those acting strongly, winter weather becomes more variable.
In addition, the Arctic Oscillation is expected to influence the number of cold-air spurts in the South and Nor'easters on the East Coast.
The Arctic Oscillation varies during the season, affecting the circulation of air.
When it is in a positive phase, the mid-latitude jet stream shifts to the north and there is an increase in the number of warm days over much of the contiguous United States. In the negative phase, the high-latitude air flow is blocked near Greenland, resulting in an increase in the extreme cold days, especially from the Great Plains to the Southeast.
The regional outlook for this winter includes:
Northeast: Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected. Snowfall for the entire region will depend on the fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation.
Mid-Atlantic States: Equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal temperatures and rain or snow. Storm tracks could bring more snow than the winters of the late 1990s, but this largely depends on the Arctic Oscillation.
Southeast: Should be drier than normal. Temperatures have an equal chance of averaging above normal, normal or below normal.
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes: Temperatures should be lower than normal, with more subzero days than in recent winters. There are equal chances for cumulative precipitation to be above normal, normal or below normal.
Northern Great Plains and Rockies: Below-normal temperatures with more subzero days than experienced on average during the winters of the late 1990s.
Southern Plains: Wet and mild weather is more likely than in recent winters.
Central Rockies: Expect equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal precipitation and temperatures.
Northwest: Equal chances for above normal, normal or below-normal rain and snow. Heavy coastal rains are more likely compared to the previous three winters. A repeat of the near-record dryness seen last winter is unlikely.
Southwest: Warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the region, except western California, and equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal precipitation.
Southwestern Alaska: Expect a wet winter.
Hawaii and the rest of Alaska: Expect equal chance of above normal, normal or below normal temperatures and precipitation.
Copyright 2001 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
PRINT THIS PAGE | SEND THIS TO A FRIEND | VIEW MOST EMAILED
US HEADLINES
• Scientists Work to Preserve 'JFK' Recording
• New Clues in Terror Probe
• Person of the Week: Frank Mills
• Unusual Adoption Reunites Teen and Birthmother
• Alternative Therapies Might Aid Fertility
Search Now:
Copyright © 2004
Indy
TY 4 Stroke God
Since I wrote an article yesterday, I have found out something astounding. This probably will be a scorcher of a summer, but brace yourselves, Snowdude said that the ice is not melting too fast at the poles, and that could mean a very cold winter for the U.S. in 2005. I have observed something else that supports that conclusion. I was digging in my garden yesterday and have discovered that ants and termites are already doing some "winter burrowing" into the ground. I am a relative old timer, being 50 years old, and have always had a keen interest in the weather. Back in June of 1962, I had a garden as a child, and remember the same thing happening in June. The summer was fairly normal and the fall was not bad, but as some of us who are older remember, the winter of 1962-1963 was one of the coldest ones of the 20th century for the U.S., particularly from the Great Lakes south and east.
You heard it here first, I believe based on what I saw yesterday, and have not seen since 1962, that the winter of 2004-2005 may be quite severe over much of the U.S. It may be the worst in some 40 years, nature knows long before we do. The fact that ice is not melting near the north pole and it has stayed so cold in Churchill Canada, near Hudson Bay, may be an indicator that this is coming.
I still think this will be a doozy of a summer, but I am afraid we may be in for a 3rd really bad winter and this may be worse than the last 2. If another El Nino arises, which is possible, it may even worsen the cold.
Any thoughts are welcome. The ants seem to support Snowdude's observations. I could not believe what I saw, not having seen this in 40 years so early.
You heard it here first, I believe based on what I saw yesterday, and have not seen since 1962, that the winter of 2004-2005 may be quite severe over much of the U.S. It may be the worst in some 40 years, nature knows long before we do. The fact that ice is not melting near the north pole and it has stayed so cold in Churchill Canada, near Hudson Bay, may be an indicator that this is coming.
I still think this will be a doozy of a summer, but I am afraid we may be in for a 3rd really bad winter and this may be worse than the last 2. If another El Nino arises, which is possible, it may even worsen the cold.
Any thoughts are welcome. The ants seem to support Snowdude's observations. I could not believe what I saw, not having seen this in 40 years so early.
totally meaningless.thanks for the effort thought 
I know it has been a relatively wet and cool summer here in NY. I'm going to be optimistic and side with Indy and hope winter is GREAT!! 
JDKRXW
TY 4 Stroke Junkie
Indy, buddy, don't take everthing you read so seriously......; these clowns are not accurate guessing what the weather is going to be like tomorrow morning, let alone next winter.
If you're interested in an accurate forecast, talk to a farmer or fisherman or somebody whose livelyhood depends on happening with the weather.
If you're interested in an accurate forecast, talk to a farmer or fisherman or somebody whose livelyhood depends on happening with the weather.
impalapower
TY 4 Stroke God
I've let myself to disappointment too many times. I'll believe it when I see it. There never can be too much snow and too cold of temperatures.
As one of the few real meteorologists on this site, let me throw in my 2 cents worth. I believe the Winter in the Northeast will be about normal both in temperature and snowfall. Like RX-1MAN pointed out it has been a cold a wet summer in NY. The high so far at my house has been 85. I have only made it to 80, 7 times this summer. We are still in a Winter time pattern, with the jet stream being south of the Northeast most of the summer. If this keeps up the great lakes will not get as warm as usual therefore they will cool off quicker in the fall and early winter, and thus we will get less lake effect snow then normal. Still in all, I expect a normal winter with about 220" of snow at my house.
impalapower
TY 4 Stroke God
Hey, don't you Meteorologists give us any forecasts, some of us who depend on you have been failed. They never lied when I was a kid, and now with more technology its only worse. Don't take it the wrong way, I sometimes mess up on the job too!
Impalapower, My occupation is now an Air Traffic Controller. I went from being a Meteorologist where you could be wrong 50% of the time, and nobody thought much of it, to a job where if i'm wrong now, many lives will be in danger. I still enjoy giving my own forecasts because I am right alot more than our local TV Meteorologists are. I still measure snowfall for the National Weather Service. 
Impalapower, My occupation is now an Air Traffic Controller. I went from being a Meteorologist where you could be wrong 50% of the time, and nobody thought much of it, to a job where if i'm wrong now, many lives will be in danger. I still enjoy giving my own forecasts because I am right alot more than our local TV Meteorologists are. I still measure snowfall for the National Weather Service.
Indy
TY 4 Stroke God
Hi BBW or Gordon, thanks for the input. Its nice to see you posting again. Impala is kinda right. The weather persons in this area really dont have a clue when it comes to snowfall, they always predict the worst possible amount, like 5 to 9 inches and we get a dusting. Happens all winter, why is this?
Snappy and JDK, don't shoot the messenger, I was just sharring.
Snappy and JDK, don't shoot the messenger, I was just sharring.
Swiss Sledder
TY 4 Stroke God
I like Indy's version better than the one posted at Maximum Sled. The only outlet that seems to get the forecasts right is John Dee (except for the snow storm of the century he forecasted after Christmas last year).
http://www.maximumsled.com/maximumsled/ ... /index.asp
http://www.maximumsled.com/maximumsled/ ... /index.asp
welterracer
TY 4 Stroke God
Here i mid IOWA.. it has been a very MILD summer with almost no humidity!! SOMETHING IM LOVIN!!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...PROBOBLY NOTHING!! FORCASTS ARE WRONG 50% of the time!! which means they are right 50% of the time! LOL
Have a great fall!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...PROBOBLY NOTHING!! FORCASTS ARE WRONG 50% of the time!! which means they are right 50% of the time! LOL
Have a great fall!
monker
TY 4 Stroke Guru
Judging by the stripes in the wooly bears (fuzzy orange and black catipillars) we will have a good winter.
Judging by the current weather (cool wet summer) we will have a so-so winter.
The final indicator (how fast the freshmen girls put on that 15 pounds for winter) has yet to be seen.
Judging by the current weather (cool wet summer) we will have a so-so winter.
The final indicator (how fast the freshmen girls put on that 15 pounds for winter) has yet to be seen.
RX1 Yooper
TY 4 Stroke Junkie
That's valuable info. The Great Lakes area snowfall will be below normal, normal, or above normal.
