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2024-25 Winter predictions

Mooseman

Mooseman

I'm not all knowing. Post your question in forum.
Joined
Nov 3, 2009
Messages
3,953
Location
Greely, Ontario
Country
Canada
Snowmobile
'07 Venture MP (gone)
'07 Phazer FX (gone)
'09 Phazer GT (gone)
'10 RS Venture GT (My current ride)
'10 Nytro FX (son's)
LOCATION
Greely, ON Canada
It doesn't look good again for the upcoming season unless you're in northern Ontario or Manitoba.

winter-weather-map-ca-16x9_0.webp


24-25-winter-weather-map-table-day6-2400px.webp


Sources:

I'm looking at mild and dry in my area (Ottawa) but would have the possibility of trailering to North Bay where my son lives. Only problem is they have a cat and I'm allergic ;):D
 

The european weather models are showing a trough right through ontario and western quebec where cold air combined with a stable high pressure area over the atlantic will induce fewer warming events. IOW there is a corridor forming for cold weather blasts from the polar regions that will cut right through ontario but the La Nina effect will be minimal so normal snowfall amounts. Last year we had normal snowfall but far more warming events. My gauge for prediction is the european models, my gauge for actual weather comes from several buddies who own large property management companies and is based on their own observed conditions across what amounts to the entirety of southern ontario.

The Canadian climae models (CANSIPS) which is an integrated model using two different systems, shows a normal winter (temperature) in southernmost ontario,slightly below normal for the great lakes/UP.


1725107884178.png


The climate models tend to focus on Dec-Feb and February/March as a separate prediction because the patterns start to change towards the coming spring. This model shows more cold in February with solid below seasonal averages.

1725108060298.png


Flipping over to NOAA, here is the prediction developed for the same period showing normal winter temperature outlook for the UP and southern ontario. Note that all models show below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the west because even a weak El Nina will create good winter weather conditions there.


1725108268069.gif


And finally, the NOAA precipitation prediction for the 2024/25 season.

1725108395318.gif
 
earthling said:
The european weather models are showing a trough right through ontario and western quebec where cold air combined with a stable high pressure area over the atlantic will induce fewer warming events. IOW there is a corridor forming for cold weather blasts from the polar regions that will cut right through ontario but the La Nina effect will be minimal so normal snowfall amounts. Last year we had normal snowfall but far more warming events. My gauge for prediction is the european models, my gauge for actual weather comes from several buddies who own large property management companies and is based on their own observed conditions across what amounts to the entirety of southern ontario.

The Canadian climae models (CANSIPS) which is an integrated model using two different systems, shows a normal winter (temperature) in southernmost ontario,slightly below normal for the great lakes/UP.


View attachment 176509

The climate models tend to focus on Dec-Feb and February/March as a separate prediction because the patterns start to change towards the coming spring. This model shows more cold in February with solid below seasonal averages.

View attachment 176511

Flipping over to NOAA, here is the prediction developed for the same period showing normal winter temperature outlook for the UP and southern ontario. Note that all models show below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the west because even a weak El Nina will create good winter weather conditions there.


View attachment 176512

And finally, the NOAA precipitation prediction for the 2024/25 season.

View attachment 176513
Click to expand...
Nice data. Looks like we will be in the jetstream a lot, which bodes well for lake effect.
Lake effect is where the majority of our snow comes from.
 
We'll be upset either way. Either we pay for the seasonal permit pre-season lower price and we get no snow (like last season) or we don't get the permit and we get epic snow and have to pay more for the permit in-season. I hate gambling.

At least I won't have much maintenance to do on my sled from last year.
 
I agree we will get what we get but I hope we get an old school mega snow winter in NWO as we don't have a many month warm climate escape planned this winter for the first time in a while we will be home most of the winter. I am hoping for "Winder Winter" !
 
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