In my experience with my 18 it is not the actuator. My actuator has never been out for any reason. After following this site and the many chaincase threads I really believe that the main root cause of all chaincase issues is an overtight chain. An overtight chain will make it harder for the actuator to move one way or the other. Especially when it is cold when you first start up. If I cycle it in to reverse to start the day and then put it in forward and take off it does not always shift all the way to forward. I can tell this because I smell belt and when I let off there seems to be more of an engine breaking effect. It is in between gears. The actuator is trying to move but it can't. It needs to have a sloppy chain to work right. If I turn off the sled at the key and then start it again it will recycle the actuator in to forward. Unless there is damage. I have always caught this problem very early but I believe if one were to drive it only a short distance that is when the damage occurs. Now I never use reverse when the sled is cold. I also believe that there are a lot of dealers out there that do not understand how to properly adjust the chain tension. The only way to do it right is to do it while the chaincase is open. This finger tight business is not an exacting science.