mikeb
Expert
The AccuWeather.com long-range center continues to drive home the point that a very warm winter is on the way for much of the nation, especially east of the Rockies--a forecast given to Joe Bastardi Energy Pro&trade, and private clients at the start of summer. Joe Bastardi, chief long-range meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, warned of a reversal in November--that areas receiving the endless summer in October would be noticeably colder that month relative to normal, and probably even below normal in many areas.
The recent cold in the East and Great Lakes regions is consistent with the original Winter Forecast, released in October, which called for seasonable winter weather at the beginning and end of winter, with warmer temperatures dominating what is climatologically the coldest part of the season.
Temperatures from Minnesota and Iowa to New England southward into the Carolinas, Tennessee and Alabama reached 5 to 7 degrees above normal for October. However, November has been quite the opposite with temperatures running 3 degrees below normal from New England to the Carolinas westward to Ohio and Kentucky. Also, in much of this area, the first snowflakes of the season fell in the first third of the month. More of this is expected later in November and probably into early December.
Despite the early chill in the East and the National Weather Service forecast predicting a colder winter than last, Bastardi believes this could rival the winter of 2001-02 for warmth centered in major population areas--mostly the East, South, Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
The only colder-than-normal areas will be the less populated Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Bastardi points out that last year, the coldest period was centered in the East during the heart of winter. February was the coldest ever in parts of the Midwest, and December was what tipped the scale to warmer than normal over the three-month period. This winter; however, will be warm in most of the nation from the Plains eastward, where much of the population resides.
Unlike last winter, when the AccuWeather.com forecast indicated that the warmth of December and early January would turn on a dime, when the warmth returns this December it may last all of the way through February. In fact, in some places, the wildest weather may be during the next three or four weeks, and then again in March or April as a late spring may be in the making for much of the East.
Despite this forecast, Bastardi cautions that there will still be bouts with major winter events in much of the region that is expected to be very warm. Even in the warmest of winters, cold and snow will enter the picture from time to time--it will just not make an extended stay.
The recent cold in the East and Great Lakes regions is consistent with the original Winter Forecast, released in October, which called for seasonable winter weather at the beginning and end of winter, with warmer temperatures dominating what is climatologically the coldest part of the season.
Temperatures from Minnesota and Iowa to New England southward into the Carolinas, Tennessee and Alabama reached 5 to 7 degrees above normal for October. However, November has been quite the opposite with temperatures running 3 degrees below normal from New England to the Carolinas westward to Ohio and Kentucky. Also, in much of this area, the first snowflakes of the season fell in the first third of the month. More of this is expected later in November and probably into early December.
Despite the early chill in the East and the National Weather Service forecast predicting a colder winter than last, Bastardi believes this could rival the winter of 2001-02 for warmth centered in major population areas--mostly the East, South, Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
The only colder-than-normal areas will be the less populated Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Bastardi points out that last year, the coldest period was centered in the East during the heart of winter. February was the coldest ever in parts of the Midwest, and December was what tipped the scale to warmer than normal over the three-month period. This winter; however, will be warm in most of the nation from the Plains eastward, where much of the population resides.
Unlike last winter, when the AccuWeather.com forecast indicated that the warmth of December and early January would turn on a dime, when the warmth returns this December it may last all of the way through February. In fact, in some places, the wildest weather may be during the next three or four weeks, and then again in March or April as a late spring may be in the making for much of the East.
Despite this forecast, Bastardi cautions that there will still be bouts with major winter events in much of the region that is expected to be very warm. Even in the warmest of winters, cold and snow will enter the picture from time to time--it will just not make an extended stay.
It hurts to register the sleds since they jacked it up to $78 last year. I only put on 560 miles last year... I am going to wait until January to register the sled and if there isn't a ton of snow, I am putting the sled up for sale. These past few winters have stunk.
Although, I can't wait to get back up to Errol and start riding through Pittsburg, Colebrook, etc...
Although, I can't wait to get back up to Errol and start riding through Pittsburg, Colebrook, etc...
kcusscam
Extreme
Humm,
I don't place much faith on preditions made by weather people. They can say it will be 90 and not a cloud in the sky when we are in the middle of a 18" snow storm. Why even worry about it they snow will get here when it gets here. On a brighter note the snow is starting to pile up in northern maine (http://ahps.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics ... depth.html). The only bummer is that I live in the middle of the state but I guess it can be chassed.
I don't place much faith on preditions made by weather people. They can say it will be 90 and not a cloud in the sky when we are in the middle of a 18" snow storm. Why even worry about it they snow will get here when it gets here. On a brighter note the snow is starting to pile up in northern maine (http://ahps.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics ... depth.html). The only bummer is that I live in the middle of the state but I guess it can be chassed.
We'll see what happens as long range stuff is tricky. Warmer dosn't necessarily mean no snow... warm conditions can even produce more snow. The fun starts tomorrow with a nice storm...
redtailshark2000
Newbie
snow
I'm from Northern Maine (Madawaska) and we have well over a foot now and it looks like that may double in the next week. YESSSSS!!!!!
I'm from Northern Maine (Madawaska) and we have well over a foot now and it looks like that may double in the next week. YESSSSS!!!!!
NJNYTRO
Expert
thats funny- North Jersey recieved a early 6 inches and is expected another storm tomorrow. I don't put much faith in that stuff, its a crap shoot.
kcusscam
Extreme
Re: snow
Have the groomed anything up their yet, any ice on the lakes?
redtailshark2000 said:
Have the groomed anything up their yet, any ice on the lakes?
Mark O
Expert
RedRocket said:
You do realize that right after you sell it, there will be a ton of snow.
Mark O said:
Of course! There is a 10"-18" snowstorm headed for us tonight, hmm maybe if I keep threatening to sell the sled...
I can't wait to get home from work tomorrow and finally take the sled out of the shed.
She's waiting patiently.
Those who can - do - those who can't - teach- those who can't teach forecast the weather.
For those who forecast an above average warm winter i say pack a thong, sunblock 30 put the convertible top down and head up to the UP, say around Mass City. I was there Saturday night at 10 degrees with a solid 30mph wind and 24" of snow on the ground.
The onlyone I trust to forecast is John Dee and he called for cold and snow and he was right.
For those who forecast an above average warm winter i say pack a thong, sunblock 30 put the convertible top down and head up to the UP, say around Mass City. I was there Saturday night at 10 degrees with a solid 30mph wind and 24" of snow on the ground.
The onlyone I trust to forecast is John Dee and he called for cold and snow and he was right.
mikeRX
Extreme
They Jacked it up to $78!! I would buy 3 passes for that! Here (Ontario) its $180.00 befor Dec 1st and $240.00 after Dec.1st. Yikes!!! Lets not even get into insurance costs up here. I don't want you guys to have nightmares!!!
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try buying 4 passes. i buy 2 for me and i give my brothers each one for their sleds. at least i know it is someting they will use that they get for christmas.
