I don’t think we can expect a Yamaha designed and built sled any time soon. It's more likely that Yamaha will continue to move in the direction of viewing the sled market as a venue to sell engines and to support their dealer network with some Yamaha branded Arctic Cats to sell.
The problems are market share, the cost of developing a new sled, and the future of the industry. Yamaha’s market share of snowmobile industry is too small to justify the gamble.
Yamaha took a gamble on the sidewinder. It’s a great sled and it got great press prior to launch, but it didn’t change the industry. It would be interesting to see Yamaha’s total sidewinder sales compared to their projections. But purely based on anecdotal evidence, there are a lot of 2017s left over and the dealers that I have spoken with were underwhelmed by the sales. They sold units, but it wasn’t the game changer they were hoping for. If Yamaha had sold every sled and could not keep up with demand, then I think we’d see heavier investment from Yamaha. But that is not what happened.
The problem is market share. Skidoo and Polaris dominate the industry. The only way Yamaha becomes the big player in the sled industry again is to convert skidoo and Polaris riders. If the sidewinder didn’t convert many riders, how much better can Yamaha expect to do with a Japanese developed and built sled? Maybe if they dumped a ton a money into a lightweight two stroke they could convert some more riders. But to what end?
Yamaha has surely considered the cost that it would take to capture more market share in the sled industry. But they have also surely projected what the sled industry will look like in 10-20 years. These projections don’t look great. Motor sports in North America are not seeing they growth they had 10 years ago and snowmobiles are even more risky. What are winters going to look like in 15 years? What will the trail networks look like? Maybe these types of changes will reduce a 100,000 sleds/year industry to 50,000 sleds/year.
For a conservative company like Yamaha the risk/reward of dumping a ton of money into a new model does not make sense.
This isn’t the 70s anymore, when anyone who made something with an engine could design a snowmobile and expect to sell some units. Snowmobiles today are extremely complicated with insane supply lines and manufacturing processes. A problem that Yamaha has is that they have not designed a new snowmobile in 10 years. That’s a lot of institutional knowledge lost. Without them spending a ton of money, we can’t expect that a company that hasn’t designed a snowmobile in 10 years and that has never designed a snowmobile with a great suspension, to build a new game changing snowmobile from scratch.
I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see Yamaha investing big in the snowmobile industry. The tepid 50th anniversary seems to confirm this.